Does it help to think long-term?

A lot of decisions that I need to make, change as soon as I increase the time horizon during which I intend to own the consequences. I won't do the same job if I wanted to do it for 3 years, as compared to say a month. I would make a different investment if I wanted to own it for 10 years as compared to a year. I would probably recruit a different person if I would be working with them for 5 years as compared to just the current 3 months project. So, depending on how long I will have skin-in-the-game, I try to increase or decrease my horizon. I strongly feel there is an inherently higher value in owning the consequences of my decisions for a substantial amount of time. I tend to make any decision assuming I would be the last person catching the ball when the music stops, but more on that in another post.

But, what's the definition of the long-term or what's the timescale defining it? I think its a bit dynamic and might change depending upon a person's situation and the domain of the decision. For me it has not evolved linearly. I used to think 1 year was long-term in my early 20s, probably due to my ignorance. By late 20s, I had switched to the other extreme and thought of 30 years as long-term, probably because of idealist influences, and making all decisions assuming it will be for life.

I am in my mid 30s now, and as life kept throwing sudden big setbacks, my timescale has shrunk back again. As I see it now 7 years is forever, 3 years is long, 1 year is distant, 6 months is far, a quarter is near, a month is close and today is what I've got. The 7 years number incidentally coincides with the time takes for most cells of our body to regenerate.

So, I do think now in terms of 3 years, especially for big decisions, but I try to balance it with short-term well-being to understand it's sustainability. Yes, I do want to invest in one idea for 3 years, but will it be sustainable? I do doubt the degree to which I can successfully predict what I will feel about something in future. I recently came across the error of making impact biases while making affective forecasts which confirms this doubt.

I have a concept I call "flexible rigidity" - locking in to a particular thing and investing heavily in a direction with high commitment for a substantial amount of time before bailing out. I have felt this allows for a much better deeper experience of going through the highs and low and the learning and the satisfaction is exponentially higher.

I believe that if the journey itself aligns with my values, having a long-term view increases the chance of succeeding in a particular venture. I have a deep optimism that given a long enough runway all ideas can take-off.